Canaccord Genuity is pretty optimistic about where marijuana retail sales in the U.S. could head to. Analyst Bobby Burleson with the firm believes that retail sales could reach around $22 billion by 2022.

The analyst wrote in a note to clients this week that he increased his estimate for the compound annual growth rate for marijuana retail sales between 2019 and 2022 to 20% from 19%.

Burleson estimates the U.S. will see $12.8 billion in retail sales in 2019, and from there sales could grow by 20% each year.

“With a population of almost 13 [million] we believe the Illinois market could quickly become one of the largest in the country,” Burleson wrote.

“While regulations in the state will still need time to be worked out, we expect existing medical market operators will be the first to receive licenses under the state’s new laws,” he added.

According to Burleson, the California marijuana market is expected to grow to $5.6 billion by 2022. The analyst notes that California has a large illicit market “that has persisted due to heavy taxation on legal sales and local municipalities that have banned cannabis sales.”

“Any crackdown bodes well for legal operators in the state and the law that enables home delivery into municipalities that have banned cannabis operators negates the convenience factor for some illicit sales,” wrote Burleson.

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