According to cannabis data and analytics firm New Frontier, the legal marijuana market in the U.S. is expected to double by the year 2025.

New Frontier has projected in a new report, Cannabis in America for 2021 & Beyond: A New Normal in Consumption and Demand, that the market will hit $41.5 billion by then.

The new report was a special update to the U.S. Cannabis Report: 2020-2021 Industry Outlook and reflects the resized market projections following the passing of six cannabis ballot initiatives in five states and an analysis of cannabis consumer behaviors driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The new report was presented in partnership with Merida Capital Holdings, a leading private equity firm and operating company in the cannabis space.

“History is happening before our eyes as the events of 2020 are fundamentally redefining the U.S. cannabis market and will continue to do so for years to come,” said Giadha A. DeCarcer, founder and CEO of New Frontier Data.

“The pace and scale of growth the industry is experiencing is a compelling proof point that cannabis is evolving into a mainstream consumer category.”

“In 2021, we will likely see the legal cannabis market mature even further as it continues to cannibalize the much larger illicit market. This stratospheric growth presents incredible investment opportunities,” says Merida Capital Holdings Managing Partner Mitch Baruchowitz.

“True to our motto ‘Responsible Investing Across the Cannabis Ecosystem,’ we are honored to partner with New Frontier Data to offer valuable industry research and deeper analytical insights so investors and consumers alike can make informed decisions.”

The study found the market is:

Fueled by strong consumer demand, annual legal (medical and adult-use) sales are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21%, to reach more than $41 billion by 2025 (from $13.2 billion in 2019)

By 2025, an estimated 39% of total annual cannabis demand across the country will be met by legal purchases in regulated marketplaces (from 17% in 2019)

Annual legal sales of medical cannabis are projected to grow at a 19% CAGR through 2025, to an estimated $16.3 billion (from $5.9 billion in 2019), while adult-use sales are projected to grow at a 23% CAGR, to $25.1 billion (from $7.4 billion in 2019)

Increased consumer access to cannabis in newly passed legal markets is estimated to generate $1.2 billion in revenue by 2022

Monthly consumer spending increased by an average of $149 between March and October in 14 legal markets analyzed

Flower, with a market share trending down in the months before the pandemic, gained market share to account for half of product sales by late October

72% of consumers have changed their social consumption behaviors, and 33% of purely social consumers (those who only consume with others) have not used cannabis during the pandemic


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